According to a report by the Africa Research Center, as cited by The Wall Africa, unresolved conflicts, growing displacement, and external interference are intensifying security challenges across the continent in 2024. The report highlights ten critical trends shaping Africa’s security landscape, from rising militant violence to natural disasters.
Militant Violence Reaches Record Levels in the Sahel
The Sahel remains the epicenter of militant activity in Africa, with violence tripling since 2020. Fatalities reached approximately 11,000 this year, primarily attributed to groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS). These groups have expanded their influence in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, pushing into coastal West Africa. Alarmingly, military juntas and allied forces have contributed to rising civilian casualties, with reports showing over 2,400 civilian deaths in the past year alone.
Forced Displacement at an All-Time High
Africa’s displaced population has risen for the 13th consecutive year, now exceeding 45 million people. Of this number, 75% are internally displaced, with the continent hosting nearly half of the world’s internally displaced persons. Conflict remains the leading cause, with the number of displaced individuals doubling since 2018.
Year of Elections Brings Mixed Results
Nineteen national elections were scheduled in 2024, but the outcomes were mixed. Military led governments in several countries failed to honor election commitments, while manipulated polls were held in others. However, eight countries, including Senegal, Ghana, and Botswana, held competitive elections, with peaceful power transitions emphasizing the potential for democratic progress also The Breakaway region Somalia The Somaliland hold fair and transparency elections with peaceful power transition .
Governance Deteriorates Under Military Rule
Military governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Chad have postponed elections and restricted freedoms. Under their rule, fatalities linked to violence have surged, and militant groups have expanded their control. Media repression has further obscured the true scale of the crises.
Foreign Influence Undermining Sovereignty
External actors, notably Russia, US, EU, France and China, have exacerbated Africa’s democratic backsliding. These nations have supported authoritarian regimes, spread disinformation, and interfered in elections. Russia, for instance, has employed information manipulation in 28 African countries, while China has promoted its governance model and increased its influence over African media.
Rising Food Insecurity Amid Conflicts and Floods
Acute food insecurity affects 163 million Africans, driven by conflict and climate-related disasters. Countries such as Sudan, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among the worst affected, with millions facing famine. Meanwhile, flooding in 27 countries has displaced millions and destroyed vital croplands, highlighting the intersection of weak governance and natural disasters.
Piracy and sabotage in the Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean disrupted global shipping and affected African economies. However, collaboration through the Yaoundé Protocol has reduced piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.
Protecting the Congo Basin
The Congo Basin, vital for global ecological stability, faces threats from illegal logging and mining. Transnational criminal networks exploit weak forest governance, underscoring the need for regional cooperation to protect these critical resources.
The Sudan Conflict’s Regional Impact
Sudan’s ongoing conflict has triggered the world’s largest displacement crisis, with millions fleeing the country. Neighboring states are grappling with the spillover effects, including political instability and cross-border violence. External actors, such as Iran, Israel, US, China, France, Russia and the UAE, have further inflamed the conflict by supplying weapons and mercenaries.