Djibouti, strategically located in the Horn of Africa, is increasingly at the center of geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. Despite its small size and limited resources, Djibouti plays a pivotal role in global trade and military operations due to its position near the Gulf of Aden, one of the busiest maritime routes in the world. The United States and China, along with several other nations, have established military bases in Djibouti, each seeking to secure maritime traffic in the region. However, recent developments, particularly Djibouti’s refusal to allow the U.S. to launch military operations against the Houthis from its territory, have raised concerns about Chinese influence over the small nation.
In 2017, China established its first overseas military base in Djibouti, a move that was closely scrutinized by the United States, which feared that Beijing’s growing presence in Africa would shift the regional balance of power. Despite these concerns, Djibouti has maintained a policy of neutrality, hosting military bases from multiple powers, including the U.S., France, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and others. This neutrality has allowed Djibouti to avoid taking sides in conflicts between these foreign powers. However, it has also caused friction with the United States, especially after Djibouti declined a U.S. request to use its territory for military operations against the Houthis in Yemen.
The Houthis, considered a militant group by the United States, have been at odds with the U.S. and its allies in the region, but Djibouti sees them as more than just a militant group. The country views the Houthis as a quasi-state actor, controlling significant parts of Yemen, including the capital, Sana’a. As such, Djibouti’s policy prohibits military actions against the Houthis from its soil. Djibouti’s stance has led to accusations from some American officials that China’s growing influence in Djibouti is behind the decision to deny the U.S. the ability to attack the Houthis from its base.
However, Djibouti’s policy is not one of alignment with China or the Houthis; rather, it reflects a broader commitment to neutrality, which enables it to host foreign military bases from rival nations. This policy of neutrality allows Djibouti to play a key role in combating non-state actors like pirates and militant groups such as al-Qaida without getting involved in conflicts between nation-states. Despite this, U.S. analysts continue to suggest that Djibouti’s refusal to allow operations against the Houthis is a sign of growing Chinese influence, a claim that is disputed by Djibouti’s leadership.
Amid these tensions, some American foreign policy experts have advocated for recognizing Somaliland as an alternative partner in the Horn of Africa. Somaliland, a self-declared independent state, has not been recognized internationally, but it is seen by some as a more reliable ally for the U.S. However, recognizing Somaliland could destabilize the region, especially given the delicate balance between Ethiopia and Somalia, both of which oppose Somaliland’s independence. Additionally, while Somaliland is more stable than Somalia, it faces ongoing clan warfare, particularly in its eastern regions, making it a less secure option for the U.S.
Recognizing Somaliland could also shift regional allegiances, potentially bringing Somaliland closer to China, which is a major investor in the Horn of Africa. China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which includes significant investments in Djibouti’s infrastructure, has sparked concerns in Washington about Beijing’s growing footprint in the region. However, such concerns may be premature, as China has yet to expand its military presence in Africa beyond Djibouti, despite predictions to the contrary.
The U.S. and China share a mutual interest in ensuring the security of global maritime traffic, which passes through the region. Rather than escalating tensions in Djibouti, experts argue that the United States should focus on cooperating with China to safeguard these vital shipping lanes. By respecting Djibouti’s neutrality and working together to address shared security concerns, both countries can help reduce tensions and avoid a potential confrontation. Djibouti’s role as a host to multiple foreign military bases, including those of the U.S. and China, provides a unique opportunity for cooperation and stability in a region that is critical to global trade and security.
As highlighted by Responsible Statecraft, Djibouti’s neutral stance presents an opportunity for global powers to cooperate rather than compete. The report suggests that Djibouti’s role as a host for various military bases makes it an essential player in ensuring regional stability and maritime security. Additionally, Responsible Statecraft argues that the ongoing geopolitical tug-of-war between the U.S. and China should not overshadow Djibouti’s unique position in global trade and security.
In conclusion, Djibouti’s strategic importance and its neutral stance make it a key player in the ongoing geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and China. Rather than viewing Djibouti as a battleground for influence, both powers should prioritize collaboration to ensure the safety of global trade routes and avoid exacerbating regional tensions. As noted by Responsible Statecraft, the region’s stability hinges on balancing global interests while maintaining Djibouti’s sovereignty.