The Horn of Africa remains one of the most volatile regions on the continent, with unresolved territorial disputes, political fragmentation, and external interference threatening regional stability. Experts warn that without decisive diplomatic intervention, tensions could escalate into full-scale inter-state wars.
The African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have been urged to draw lessons from the ongoing crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and strengthen their conflict prevention mechanisms. However, these efforts are hindered by inadequate funding, limited capacity, and political divisions among member states.
Key flashpoints in the region include tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, unresolved disputes between Sudan and South Sudan over the Abyei region, and the ongoing Sudan-Ethiopia border conflict in Al Fashaga. Additionally, growing competition over access to the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has further strained regional relations.
External actors have also contributed to instability, with foreign powers leveraging economic investments, military bases, and arms supplies to assert influence. This external interference complicates peace efforts and deepens internal divisions.
Despite existing frameworks such as IGAD’s Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) and the AU’s Panel of the Wise, mediation efforts have often been reactive rather than preventive. Ceasefire agreements in conflicts such as those in South Sudan and Ethiopia have faced persistent violations, undermining peace efforts.
The AU and IGAD are now being called upon to strengthen early warning systems, enhance mediation capacity, and push for greater commitment from member states to prevent conflicts before they escalate. Experts emphasize that Africa must take the lead in resolving its security challenges, warning that failure to act decisively could lead to further destabilization and weaken the continent’s ability to manage its own security affairs in an increasingly complex global landscape.