The US decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement is expected to have serious consequences for Africa, Dhesigen Naidoo analyzed in ISS. The move, initiated by President Donald Trump with an executive order on his first day in office, marks another shift in the country’s climate policy and could derail global efforts to combat climate change.
The US has a turbulent history with international climate commitments. Former President George H.W. Bush supported strong environmental policies at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, while the Senate later rejected the Kyoto Protocol under President Bill Clinton. Trump previously withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement during his first term, but rejoined shortly after President Joe Biden took office in 2021. However, this latest withdrawal is expected to last at least four years, depending on the outcome of the 2028 elections.
Financial Consequences and Impact on Africa
One of the most immediate consequences of the US withdrawal is the potential loss of financial support for global climate initiatives. The decision could jeopardize the $300 billion climate finance commitment made at COP29 in Baku, as well as contributions to the Green Climate Fund and the newly established Loss and Damage Fund.
This financing gap is particularly concerning for African countries that rely on international support to implement climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) that support Africa’s transition to low-carbon energy could suffer. South Africa and Senegal currently have active JETPs, while Egypt, Ivory Coast and Morocco are in the early stages of similar plans. The US played a significant role in these projects, and its withdrawal could stall progress.
Impact on Global Institutions
Another important consequence is the impact on global financial institutions, particularly the World Bank. Under Biden, the US has supported climate-focused reforms at the bank, including financing for the closure of coal-fired power plants in South Africa. But Trump’s return signals a shift, with a renewed emphasis on fossil fuel development. If climate finance slows at the World Bank, it could have a ripple effect on other institutions, such as the European Investment Bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the African Development Bank.
Commercial banks could also return to fossil fuel investments, as a policy shift in the US could make such projects more financially attractive. This could undermine progress in global renewable energy investment.
The Way Forward
Despite these challenges, upcoming global summits offer an opportunity to reaffirm climate commitments. The BRICS summit in July, hosted by Brazil, and the G20 summit in November, led by South Africa, could serve as platforms to promote renewed international cooperation. The COP30 climate conference in Brazil later this year will also be a critical moment for world leaders to develop a stronger climate action plan.
Without decisive action, reduced climate finance and weakened policies could accelerate the global climate crisis and put Africa and other vulnerable regions at greatest risk.