The Horn of Africa is witnessing rising tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, sparking fears of a possible conflict. The deterioration of relations between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has fueled speculation about a looming war, with military movements and political disputes heightening concerns.
Former Ethiopian military commander General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, recently suggested that war between the two nations is likely. In an interview with a Tigrigna-language media outlet, Jobe cited military mobilizations and escalating rhetoric as key indicators of an impending conflict. He outlined two possible motivations: Ethiopia’s long-standing desire to regain access to the port of Assab and a potential push to remove Eritrea’s ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), often referred to by its historical name, Shabia.
Jobe also predicted that international actors, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, might intervene in the conflict for their own strategic interests. Reflecting on the 1998–2000 Ethiopia-Eritrea war, he lamented Ethiopia’s decision not to advance further into Eritrea, arguing that it had the military capacity to do so. He claimed that internal divisions within Ethiopia’s ruling party prevented a decisive resolution, leading to two decades of unresolved hostility.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Eritrea has increased its military mobilization, with all men under 60 with previous service required to undergo training. Travel restrictions have been imposed on Eritreans under 50, limiting their movement outside the country. Ethiopian sources suggest that certain military figures in Tigray, aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), have received Eritrean backing amid internal Ethiopian disputes. However, the Eritrean government has denied involvement.
In response to growing accusations, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed claims of warmongering, stating that Ethiopian activists pushing for conflict are driven by a desire to gain access to a Red Sea port. He accused them of disregarding international law and regional stability in pursuit of territorial ambitions.
As tensions escalate, the possibility of war remains uncertain. However, the increasing military preparations and political maneuvering on both sides suggest that the Horn of Africa could soon face another significant crisis.