Renewed tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar threaten South Sudan’s fragile peace, risking a collapse of the 2018 agreement aimed at stabilizing the country.
South Sudan is once again teetering on the edge of political turmoil as President Salva Kiir’s recent actions against Vice President Riek Machar’s allies have escalated tensions. The arrests and dismissals of political and military figures linked to Machar have reignited fears that the fragile peace that followed the 2013-2018 civil war could unravel. The 2018 peace agreement, designed to end five years of devastating conflict, is now in jeopardy, with violence simmering in the northeastern Upper Nile region and political infighting intensifying in the capital, Juba.
The 2018 peace deal, the Revitalised Agreement on Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), was signed after years of violence that led to the displacement of millions and the deaths of over 400,000 people. The agreement aimed to bring together the warring factions of Kiir’s government and Machar’s SPLM/IO (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition) under a single unified army, establish a new constitution, conduct elections, and oversee the disarmament of armed groups. Despite its ambitious goals, the peace deal has struggled to materialize as promised reforms, such as the formation of a unified army and the organization of elections, remain unfulfilled.
Recent violence in Upper Nile, particularly in Nasir County, has exacerbated the already fragile situation. Rumors about the government’s plans for forced disarmament of local militias sparked confrontations between South Sudanese troops and an armed group, with casualties mounting. In response, Kiir’s government has made a series of high-profile arrests, including General Gabriel Duop Lam, a Machar ally, and other key figures. This move has been perceived by many, including Machar’s SPLM/IO, as a breach of the peace agreement.
The violence in Upper Nile has also drawn concern from international observers, who fear that it could lead to broader instability. The conflict in Nasir and the continuing political infighting threaten to delay the country’s transition to a stable political order, including holding the long-awaited elections and drafting a permanent constitution. The failure to implement security reforms, coupled with widespread mistrust between the two factions, casts doubt on the sustainability of the peace agreement.
The international community has urged both Kiir and Machar to return to dialogue. Kenyan President William Ruto, who has been involved in peace efforts through the Tumaini Peace Initiative, has called for continued talks to prevent the situation from worsening. Similarly, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and other international stakeholders have emphasized the need for all parties to cease hostilities and adhere to the terms of the peace deal.
As tensions between the two leaders rise, the possibility of renewed conflict looms. South Sudan’s future hinges on the political will of its leaders to fully implement the 2018 peace deal. The international community’s role remains crucial, but ultimately, it will be the commitment of Kiir and Machar to reconciliation that will determine whether peace can be sustained in South Sudan.