Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, plans to reduce the volume of cocoa it sells internationally for the next season. The decision comes as the country grapples with its second consecutive year of declining yields, driven by climate change, aging plantations, and the spread of plant diseases.
Regulator to Limit Export Contracts
The Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC), which oversees the country’s cocoa sector, will limit export contract sales to 1.3 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season. This is a significant reduction from the usual 1.7 million tons. Officials say the decision reflects a broader concern that the decline is not part of a normal cycle but a deeper structural problem.
A CCC official explained the rationale behind the cut. “After two consecutive seasons of lower yields, we need to be cautious. This reduction in contract sales helps us avoid overcommitting when actual production is uncertain.”
Ivory Coast typically sells 70/percent to 80/percent of its cocoa crop through pre-arranged contracts with international buyers. During the 2022/23 season, the country produced 2.3 million tons, with 1.7 million tons sold under such agreements. However, production fell to 1.75 million tons in the 2023/24 season, and current estimates suggest similar figures for the 2024/25 season.
Industry analysts caution that it may take several years for Ivory Coast to regain its average main crop production of 1.3 million tons. This prolonged decline raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of the country’s cocoa industry.
Disease and Aging Plantations Threaten Production
In addition to climate-related challenges, cocoa farms in Ivory Coast are under threat from swollen shoot disease, a fast-spreading viral infection that has affected around half of the country’s cocoa fields. The disease has spread to all 13 cocoa-producing regions and currently has no effective treatment.
Another major concern is the age of the cocoa trees. About 70/percent of the plantations consist of aging trees that are more vulnerable to disease and extreme weather. While efforts to introduce disease-resistant varieties and replant affected farms are ongoing, these measures will take years to show results. Experts stress that long-term investment and policy support are essential to rejuvenate the sector.
Weather and Market Uncertainty
Erratic weather patterns have compounded the crisis. Irregular rainfall and prolonged droughts have disrupted the growth cycle of cocoa trees, leading to lower yields. Weather conditions between April and June will play a key role in determining the success of the October-March main crop.
Pod counting teams, which assess future yields, report that current conditions are similar to 2023 and 2024, both of which saw poor harvests. “We’re seeing challenging conditions again this season,” a pod counter said.
The decline in Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is likely to have far-reaching implications. As global demand for cocoa continues to rise, supply shortages could push chocolate prices higher and affect other West African cocoa-producing economies. While limiting export contracts may stabilize the market in the short term, industry experts warn that without sustained efforts to address structural challenges, the future of cocoa farming in Ivory Coast remains uncertain.