Following the shift in Niger’s government on July 26 of last year, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has encountered deepening rifts, prompting urgent efforts to resolve internal conflicts. This push to mend relations emerged after a noticeable drop-in support for the bloc, culminating in Niger’s military government collaborating with those of Mali and Burkina Faso to form a new coalition known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
The tension escalated over the past year, particularly after ECOWAS’s decision to cut electricity supplies and close borders with Niger, which only reinforced Niger’s resolve to break away along with Mali and Burkina Faso. The proposal to deploy a standby military force to restore democracy in Niger further exacerbated the situation.
Burkina Faso and Mali, which experienced coups in 2021 and 2022 respectively, aligned with Niger in separating from ECOWAS to create AES as a defense against potential threats. Although ECOWAS later lifted sanctions in an attempt to ease tensions, the formation of AES represents a significant challenge for the regional organization.
Efforts to Restore Unity
Since his re-election as ECOWAS chairperson, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Nigeria has focused on realigning the bloc. To address the challenge of re-integrating Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, ECOWAS has appointed Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Togolese President Faure Gnassingbé to lead the effort.
Faye, who is among the youngest regional leaders, is believed to offer a fresh perspective. At his first ECOWAS meeting, Tinubu urged Faye to work collaboratively with other leaders to persuade the breakaway states to rejoin. Faye has already begun his mission with visits to Mali and Burkina Faso.
Elements Influencing Success
As the January 2025 deadline approaches for the breakaway states to return to ECOWAS, several factors could impact the success of these efforts. Analysts highlight that Faye’s and Ousman Sonko’s pan-Africanist and anti-imperialist views from the recent Senegalese presidential campaign might foster positive negotiations.
Additionally, the economic and military support from Senegal, including its assistance to Mali against terrorist threats, could be beneficial. Gnassingbé’s experience in conflict resolution and his connections with AES leaders are also seen as significant assets in the reconciliation process.
Challenges Ahead
One significant obstacle is the belief that ECOWAS may be influenced by Western powers, particularly France, as noted by analyst Issoufou Boubacar Kado Magagi from Niamey. The involvement of Western delegates in recent ECOWAS summits suggests they may affect the bloc’s decisions. Magagi observes that younger Africans are increasingly rejecting what they perceive as Western agendas being pursued through certain African leaders.
Another challenge is addressing the economic fallout from ECOWAS’s sanctions. Magagi argues that compensating businesses affected by border closures and other restrictions could enhance the bloc’s efforts.
Strategies for Success
Despite the hurdles facing the reconciliation process, there is hope that targeted actions could prevent the AES countries from fully departing from ECOWAS. Analysts suggest that shifting from pressure tactics to dialogue and concessions could improve relations.
It is proposed that Faye employ a two-pronged diplomatic strategy, engaging with both ECOWAS leaders and the military governments involved. Sonko’s recent visit to Mali is seen as a positive development. Additionally, some experts believe that including representatives from nations critical of Western influence is essential for thawing relations between the breakaway states and ECOWAS.