Despite obstacles, the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN) are moving forward with a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia as tensions with Ethiopia pose a danger to the fight against the al-Shabaab group.The new mission, which is scheduled to take over from the current peacekeeping operation by the end of 2024, comes at a crucial moment for Somalia, as power rivalries in the region threaten to destabilize an already unstable situation.
ATMIS is expected to be replaced by AUSSOM, which has been gradually reducing soldier levels since 2023.ATMIS initially sent out over 20,000 soldiers, but now only 12,626 soldiers are on the ground and will stay until the job is over.With 11,911 soldiers spread over four sectors in Somalia, AUSSOM will continue to operate at a same force level. Its primary objectives will be to help Somali forces and improve civil-military relations in order to bolster the country’s capacity for managing conflicts.
With AUSSOM giving peacebuilding—which strengthens Somalia’s ability to manage its own conflicts—priority over direct statebuilding, the AU has undergone a strategic shift.The Federal Somali Government (FGS) and foreign partners are now in charge of creating government institutions, which is a significant shift from the more involved approach of earlier missions like ATMIS and AMISOM.
Egypt’s commitment to provide troops to an AU mission in Somalia is the first time that it has done so, indicating a growing interest in the region. Egypt’s participation is perceived as an attempt to increase its power in the Horn of Africa, especially in view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issues that it continues to have with Ethiopia.Egypt aims to increase its influence in a region that is becoming more and more defined by competition with Ethiopia by reopening its embassy in Mogadishu and establishing a defense treaty with Somalia in August 2024.
Ethiopia, a significant ATMIS contributor, has not yet confirmed that it will be taking part in AUSSOM. Ethiopia’s signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Somaliland earlier this year has resulted in tense relations between Somalia and Ethiopia. Somalia views this as a clear infringement on its sovereignty, as the MoU allows Ethiopia access to the Red Sea via Somaliland. Ethiopian forces will not be accepted in AUSSOM unless the Memorandum of Understanding is revoked, according to statements made by top Somali authorities, including Prime Minister Hamza AbdiBarre and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
No settlement has been found despite continuous diplomatic efforts, which have included two rounds of talks facilitated by Turkey. The major issue still stands: Ethiopia won’t revoke the Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland.For September, there will be a third round of negotiations, but the situation is still unstable.
The switch from ATMIS to AUSSOM is timely since there are growing concerns that a diminished AU presence may leave security gaps that al-Shabaab could exploit. The extremist group, which continues to pose a serious danger to the stability of Somalia, might exploit overextended Somali forces. In order to reduce these risks, the AU has already modified the withdrawal schedule. By September 2024, an internal evaluation of the drawdown’s effects is anticipated.
Instead of depending solely on donations from particular donors, the AU intends to finance AUSSOM through UN-assessed contributions. This strategy is in line with a UN resolution that was approved in December 2023 and permits evaluated contributions to support peace operations directed by the African Union.
The AU and EU have pushed for member-contribution-based finance, meanwhile, since Western allies have voiced doubts about the financial model’s long-term viability.
Due to political and territorial conflicts over the Ogaden area, Ethiopia has been militarily involved in Somalia since the late 1800s. In 1997, Ethiopian military entered Somalia for the first time in order to aid comrades in the Somali militia that were fighting Islamic fundamentalists. Ethiopia has had a sizable military presence in Somalia over the years, supposedly in response to the threat posed by Islamist rebels such as al-Shabaab.