The security situation in Somalia’s Middle Shabelle region is worsening as Alshabab militants intensify operations, encircling Jowhar, a key town located 91 kilometers north of Mogadishu. The surge in attacks has raised fears of a Taliban-style offensive, with residents growing increasingly anxious about the militant group’s expanding influence.
On Sunday, Alshabab released a video showing its fighters ambushing Somali soldiers on motorcycles between Mogadishu and Bal’ad, showcasing the group’s ability to strike despite ongoing counterterrorism efforts. The militants claim to have seized control of several areas, including Bal’ad, Biya-Cadde, and Miirtaqwa. However, Somali federal authorities strongly deny these claims, insisting that government forces remain in control. The conflicting reports have only added to local fears of an impending large-scale offensive.
In recent weeks, Middle Shabelle has become a hotspot for violence, with Alshabab targeting both Somali government forces and African Union troops. The U.S. has conducted airstrikes against militant strongholds in Middle Shabelle and the neighboring Hiran region in an attempt to curb their advances. Yet, Alshabab’s continued resilience has sparked concerns about the effectiveness of current counterterrorism strategies.
Drawing comparisons to Afghanistan’s Taliban takeover in 2021, many analysts warn that Alshabab could attempt a similar strategy if unchecked. Somali security officials, however, downplay these fears. “We are fully aware of Alshabab’s movements and are taking necessary measures to protect our people and territories,” a government official stated. “There is no imminent threat of a takeover.”
Despite these reassurances, fear persists among Jowhar’s residents. “We’re living in constant fear,” one resident shared. “The government says they are in control, but we see Alshabab in some areas.”
International observers are closely watching the situation, concerned about a growing security vacuum in Middle Shabelle. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Somali government forces can halt Alshabab’s advances and maintain control over the region.