The leaders of Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea, all countries currently experiencing strained relations with Ethiopia, recently gathered for a summit in Asmara, the capital of Eritrea.
In a statement concluding the summit, Eritrean officials emphasized the importance of “respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity” in the region. This comment was widely interpreted as a subtle reference to Ethiopia’s aspirations to secure access to a sea port, though Ethiopia was not directly mentioned.
Recent diplomatic tensions have drawn Somalia closer to Egypt and Eritrea, nations with longstanding disputes with Addis Ababa.
Observers have expressed concerns that these increasing tensions might eventually escalate into conflict.
“This alliance appears to be a move to put pressure on Addis Ababa,” explained Hassan Khannenje, Director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, during an interview with the BBC’s Focus on Africa.
“This seems to be an effort to consolidate opposition to Ethiopia,” he added.
However, Somalia’s Information Minister Daud Aweis denied such claims, stating that the summit was purely focused on cooperation between the three nations.
“Our intention is not to provoke Ethiopia,” Aweis said, noting, “Ethiopia is our neighbor, and while there have been some recent tensions, we are committed to peace and cooperation.”
Following the meeting, a photograph released by Eritrean media depicted President Isaias Afwerki standing alongside Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
A joint statement declared that the leaders had agreed to support the strengthening of Somali state institutions and to boost the capacity of Somalia’s National Federal Army in its fight against terrorism.
For Sisi, this was his inaugural visit to Eritrea, while President Mohamud had already visited Asmara three times earlier this year.
Historically, Ethiopia has been a steadfast ally of Somalia in its efforts to combat the al-Shabaab militant group, which is linked to al-Qaeda. However, relations have soured recently, especially after Ethiopia signed a preliminary agreement with Somaliland—an autonomous region that Somalia claims as its own—granting it access to a portion of Somaliland’s coastline for a military base.
Simultaneously, Egypt and Ethiopia remain embroiled in a longstanding dispute over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River, with Egypt fearing it will reduce its critical water supply.
Last month, Egypt intensified its cooperation with Somalia by sending a significant military aid shipment, including arms and ammunition, to Mogadishu. Earlier, in August, two Egyptian military planes had already delivered supplies to Somalia’s capital.
In 2018, relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia seemed to improve following the signing of a “declaration of peace and friendship” by Eritrean President Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, ending years of hostilities between the neighboring countries. This accord earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
However, these relations have once again deteriorated following the conclusion of the civil war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, a conflict in which Eritrea had supported the Ethiopian government. The end of the fighting in late 2022 has done little to restore cordial ties between the two nations.
Tensions were further exacerbated by Ethiopia’s recent desire to secure access to a Red Sea port, a move that has sparked regional concerns and increased scrutiny of Ethiopia’s intentions.