The Trump administration is grappling with internal divisions over the future of U.S. operations in Somalia, as recent gains by Al Shabab militants reignite debate over America’s long-term role in the fragile Horn of Africa nation.
Some senior officials at the State Department are reportedly pushing for the closure of the U.S. embassy in Mogadishu and a withdrawal of most diplomatic staff, citing increased threats to safety after Al Shabab recently regained control of several areas. However, others, particularly within the National Security Council, argue that such a move could undermine Somalia’s central government and trigger wider instability.
The U.S. has long pursued a dual-track strategy in Somalia: supporting elite Somali forces known as Danab through training and equipment, while conducting targeted drone strikes against Al Shabab fighters. This approach, under both Republican and Democratic administrations, aimed to help Somalia eventually manage its own security. But progress has been limited.
According to The New York Times, U.S. counterterrorism adviser Sebastian Gorka chaired a recent interagency meeting to assess options. While some advocated drawing down operations, Gorka reportedly called for escalating strikes against Al Shabab, warning that retreating now could hand the group more territory and power. He stated, “Retreating now could give Al Shabab more power and territory, which would be detrimental to both Somalia and the broader region.”
Amid these discussions, Maureen Farrell, former Pentagon Africa Policy Director, argued against relying solely on military action, telling The New York Times,
“There can be no purely military solution to Al Shabab.”
She emphasized that while targeting the radical elements of the group is necessary, efforts should also focus on pulling moderate factions into a political settlement.
The challenges are compounded by Somalia’s internal fractures. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s administration is facing mounting criticism over its military’s performance and deteriorating political alliances. Some recently trained Somali troops have reportedly retreated in the face of Al Shabab advances, raising fresh doubts about the government’s resilience.
The New York Times also highlighted debates over potentially relocating some U.S. facilities to Somaliland, a self-governing region that Mogadishu does not control. President Mohamud has even floated offers to allow Washington access to strategic air bases and seaports — including those outside his government’s jurisdiction. A senior Somali official stated, “While we do not control Somaliland, we are willing to allow U.S. access to air bases and ports, provided it benefits our security.”
While the embassy in Mogadishu remains operational, officials fear a repeat of past crises, such as the 2012 Benghazi attack or the chaotic 2021 Kabul withdrawal. State Department voices are urging a phased diplomatic drawdown to avoid emergency evacuations. A State Department spokesperson said, “We are constantly evaluating the threat environment to ensure the safety of our personnel and to adjust our operating posture as necessary.”
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s strong diplomatic and military relationship with both the U.S. and Somalia could play a pivotal role in preventing the U.S. withdrawal from Somalia. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has repeatedly met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, strengthening the bilateral ties between Somalia and Türkiye. Erdoğan’s close rapport with U.S. President Donald Trump — who has frequently praised Erdoğan’s leadership — could facilitate diplomatic conversations aimed at maintaining U.S. engagement in Somalia.
With Türkiye playing an increasingly influential role in Somalia, the possibility of Türkiye supporting Somalia’s counter-terrorism efforts may help convince the U.S. to sustain its presence. Türkiye, already involved in military training and development projects in Somalia, has much to offer in terms of both diplomatic and security support, which could influence the direction of U.S. policy.
Any major shift in U.S. policy could have ripple effects across East Africa. Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt, the UAE, and Türkiye are all invested in containing Al Shabab, which has conducted cross-border attacks and maintains links to Al Qaeda. In 2020, the group attacked a U.S. base in Kenya, and there are growing concerns over possible collaboration with Houthi forces in Yemen.
As the Trump administration weighs its next steps, the core question remains: should the U.S. maintain its current footprint, intensify military action, or scale back while preserving strike capabilities from afar?
Whatever decision is made, the implications for Somalia — and for broader regional stability — will be profound.