Lake Kariba, Zambia and Zimbabwe’s vital hydropower source, faces unprecedented lows as drought and climate change converge, endangering both countries’ energy security.
Lake Kariba, the world’s largest artificial reservoir, is experiencing its most severe water shortage in decades, prompting concerns that the Kariba Dam, which provides vital hydropower to Zambia and Zimbabwe, may soon shut down for the first time in 65 years.
A brutal drought, compounded by the effects of El Niño, has drained the lake to near-record lows, with authorities in both nations forced to ration water flows from the dam. This has led to crippling power outages across the region, with residents of Zambia enduring up to 21 hours of blackouts daily, while Zimbabwe faces daily power cuts of up to 17 hours.
The power shortages are wreaking havoc on local economies already struggling with high inflation and ongoing economic recovery efforts. In Zambia, the government is still reeling from a prolonged debt crisis, while Zimbabwe continues to battle crippling inflation. The impacts of climate change, particularly rising temperatures, have only intensified the strain on the region’s critical infrastructure.
“This is the worst we’ve seen,” said Cephas Museba, the manager of Zambia’s hydropower plant at Kariba, who has worked for the country’s national energy company, Zesco, since 2005. “The water levels have dropped significantly, and it’s affecting our ability to generate power.”
The Kariba Dam, which was constructed in the late 1950s during British colonial rule, is the cornerstone of energy generation for both Zambia and Zimbabwe, with each country relying on the reservoir for about a third of their total power supply. With the water levels plummeting, only a fraction of the dam’s turbines are operational, and power generation has been cut back to avoid total collapse.
In Zimbabwe, small businesses have been hit particularly hard. “I can’t fulfill orders because of the unreliable power supply,” said Handsome Maurukira, a metalworking business owner on the outskirts of Harare. He has been forced to spend hundreds of dollars on diesel each month to keep his business running.
Fishing communities along Lake Kariba are also seeing devastating losses. Local fishermen, who once hauled in up to a tonne of fish per night, now report catching only a fraction of that amount. “The situation is worse than 1996 when the lake last reached such low levels,” said Peter Mashonga, a boat captain in Zimbabwe.
The drought has also wiped out crops across southern Africa, leading to food insecurity in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and neighboring countries. Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, and parts of Angola and Mozambique have all declared national disasters.
In response to the crisis, governments in both Zambia and Zimbabwe are fast-tracking alternative energy projects. New coal and solar plants are under construction, and Zambia is exploring new hydroelectric dams in its northern regions to diversify its energy mix. However, Zambia’s government has also emphasized its commitment to coal as part of its energy security strategy.
“This is a wake-up call,” said Jito Kayumba, a special adviser to Zambia’s president. “We understand the importance of renewables, but coal remains essential for energy security in the short term.”
As the rainy season approaches, there is hope that water levels at Lake Kariba will rise, but with the situation deteriorating rapidly, it remains uncertain whether the region will avoid a full-scale power crisis. For now, both Zambia and Zimbabwe face an ongoing battle to preserve their power supply in the face of a changing climate.
