In recent weeks, high-level security coordination between Egypt and Somalia has intensified, focusing on the deployment of Egyptian troops as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This move has raised concerns across the region about Cairo’s growing strategic and military presence in the Horn of Africa.
A senior Egyptian security official, speaking anonymously due to restrictions on discussing military operations, revealed that a significant meeting took place in Mogadishu, the Somali capital. The talks involved top army and intelligence officers from both Egypt and Somalia, with discussions centering on logistical preparations for upcoming joint military exercises and maneuvers.
Cairo and Mogadishu have also recently signed a defence cooperation agreement. The agreement, which comes as both nations are entangled in a dispute with Ethiopia, will see 5,000 Egyptian troops deployed to Somalia as part of a peacekeeping force. These troops will be stationed in Somali regions bordering Ethiopia and will form a substantial part of AMISOM’s remaining 11,000 personnel after the mission’s mandate shifts later this year.
The terms of the agreement include Egypt providing military equipment and assigning officers to oversee command centers near the Ethiopian border. The deal also encompasses the sharing of intelligence, allowing Egypt to conduct intelligence operations within the region and engage with factions in Ethiopia.
This newfound military alliance has stirred concerns among Somalia’s neighboring countries. Reports have surfaced suggesting that several nations, including Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, and Djibouti—who contribute troops to AMISOM—are uneasy about Egypt’s expanding role in Somalia. The inclusion of Egyptian forces is viewed as a significant strategic shift, especially as it comes at the expense of Ethiopian forces that have been part of the mission since 2014.
An Egyptian official, addressing these concerns, stated that the opposition to Egypt’s increased role has been driven largely by Ethiopia and its allies. They argue that the growing Egyptian presence in the Horn of Africa, especially near Ethiopia’s borders, could potentially lead to a military conflict related to the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
For over a decade, Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odds over the dam, with Cairo concerned about the impact on its share of Nile waters. Tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia escalated earlier this year when Addis Ababa signed a memorandum with Somaliland, a self-declared republic, to lease part of its coastline for military use in exchange for recognizing Somaliland’s independence. Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, remains unrecognized by the international community.
As Egypt solidifies its military partnership with Somalia, the Horn of Africa is witnessing a significant shift in power dynamics, with far-reaching implications for regional stability.