According to a joint report published by Nigeria’s Energy Transition Office and the non-profit organization RMI, more than 60% of two-wheeled vehicles in Nigeria could be electric by 2040.
If this transition occurs, it would significantly reduce CO2 emissions and boost the growth of local manufacturing industries. While the report presents an ambitious outlook, Nigeria currently has a vast number of petrol and diesel vehicles, with electric vehicles (EVs) remaining relatively scarce.
Experts agree that this projection is bold but achievable, as electric motorcycles are steadily gaining popularity. Cities like Nairobi and Kigali are leading the way in Africa, where electric two-wheelers have become more common.
However, Kelly Carlin, a manager in RMI’s carbon-free transportation program, points out that this transition is unlikely to happen without appropriate policies, such as de-risking EV financing and providing incentives for EV users.
Carlin also highlights the challenge of Nigeria’s unreliable electricity grid, which complicates charging for electric vehicles. He advocates for the use of off-grid solar energy, which has been successfully adopted in other countries.
Despite being a major oil and gas producer, Nigeria is considering compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles as an alternative. However, Carlin warns that relying on CNG might isolate Nigeria as other countries shift towards EVs by 2050.
Although the transition to electric four-wheeled vehicles might take longer, Carlin believes that if electric two-wheelers gain traction, a similar shift in four-wheelers could follow in the next five to ten years.