As 2024 concludes, Ethiopia confronts significant unrest, regional tensions, and internal crises that have shaped its political and social fabric throughout the year. Key developments have brought the nation to a critical juncture, impacting governance, regional alliances, and economic stability.
Ethiopia’s political dynamics saw a turning point in early 2024 with a contentious agreement granting Addis Ababa access to a maritime port and naval base in Somaliland. In exchange, Ethiopia offered recognition of Somaliland’s independence, prompting sharp condemnation from Somalia’s Federal Government (SFG), which views Somaliland as part of its territory. The SFG demanded Ethiopian troops withdraw immediately, citing sovereignty violations. This agreement has strained Ethiopia’s regional relationships and intensified geopolitical complexities.
In response, a new alliance emerged, uniting Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia to counter Ethiopia’s assertive diplomatic strategies. This coalition of leaders—Isaias Afwerki, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and Abdel Fattah El-Sisi—signals shifting dynamics in the Horn of Africa, further complicating Ethiopia’s foreign relations. Meanwhile, insurgencies in Oromia and Amhara regions continued to escalate, creating severe humanitarian crises. The Fano militias in Amhara resisted government offensives, while western Oromia remained tense, with unresolved conflicts involving the Oromo Liberation Army’s active wing. Efforts to broker peace through talks in Tanzania have yet to yield significant results.
Ethiopia’s economic reforms, driven by international lenders such as the IMF and World Bank, have unlocked new funding but worsened conditions for vulnerable populations. Rising costs and eroding purchasing power have left millions struggling as humanitarian needs grow. According to UN, over 21 million Ethiopians now require urgent assistance, underscoring the dire humanitarian outlook.
The fragile Tigray region also grapples with internal divisions among political factions, undermining recovery efforts and hindering the implementation of the Pretoria peace agreement. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s previous alliance with Eritrea has disintegrated, exacerbating tensions in the aftermath of the Tigray conflict.
Amid these challenges, Türkiye’s mediation efforts through the Ankara Accord have eased tensions with Somalia. However, Ethiopia’s participation in upcoming African Union peacekeeping missions is discussed among regional analysts.
Ethiopia’s future hinges on its ability to navigate a path toward peace and stability while addressing deep-seated domestic and regional issues. The coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the nation can overcome these challenges or face continued unrest in 2025. According to The Wall Africa Journal, Türkiye’s mediation may lead to Ethiopia’s eventual participation in the African Union peacekeeping mission.