Political tensions within Tigray’s leadership have intensified, sparking concerns among residents about a possible return to conflict. The internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are deepening, leading to uncertainty over the region’s stability.
Recent days have seen rising insecurity, with fears that the growing political rivalry could escalate into violence. The split within the TPLF pits the party leadership under Debretsion Gebremichael against the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA) led by Getachew Reda. Each side refuses to recognize the other’s legitimacy, fueling instability.
Economic conditions in Tigray have worsened, with soaring prices and fuel shortages prompting panic buying. Gasoline prices on the black market have surged, while transportation costs have sharply increased. Amid this economic strain, many residents fear the situation could deteriorate further if political tensions remain unresolved.
The Ethiopian Electoral Commission has given the TPLF until early February to hold a formal congress, or risk losing its legal status. This deadline adds further pressure, as failure to comply could deepen divisions and destabilize the region.
Some analysts suggest that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government may benefit from the TPLF’s internal struggles, as a divided Tigray weakens opposition to the federal government. Critics argue that the lack of progress in implementing the Pretoria Agreement, particularly regarding the withdrawal of Eritrean troops and Amhara militias from Tigray, has contributed to the political rift.
Observers warn that the situation could escalate into broader conflict if tensions are not managed. There are concerns that factions within Tigray’s military may become involved, further complicating the region’s fragile peace. Some experts also point to the risk of external actors, such as Eritrea or Sudan, becoming entangled in the unrest.
For now, the region remains in a state of uncertainty, with political maneuvering continuing as both sides attempt to consolidate power. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the tensions lead to renewed violence or if a resolution can be reached.