With a population of nearly 6 million, Somaliland has registered 1.2 million voters. A large number of political organizations and three presidential candidates are vying for support: Abdirahman Cirro (Waddani Party), Muse Bihi (Kulmiye Party), and Faysal Ali Warabe (UCID Party). The voting is expected across different regions, with forecasts on how the candidates may perform:
- Sool (Cirro)
- Sanaag (Cirro)
- Togdheer (Cirro)
- Marodijeh/Hargeisa (Muse)
- Sahil/Berbera (Muse)
- Awdal (Cirro)
The Marodijeh region, also known to some as Northwest, is considered the area with the highest number of voters, holding about half of Somaliland’s votes. It is followed by the Awdal and Sahil regions. Western Sool and Sanaag, including districts such as Erigavo and Aynaba, are anticipated to lean towards Cirro.
This forecast was made by Minister Osman Dubbe, who has extensive experience with Somaliland elections and is well-versed in the factors that could influence the outcome, such as clan dynamics, alliances, business influences, and foreign interest in Somaliland’s strategic location.
History of General Elections in Somaliland
From 1993 to 2002, Somaliland was governed by Mohamed Ibrahim Egal, a former Prime Minister of Somalia. He followed Abdirahman Tuur, who served a brief term as Somaliland’s president (June 1991 – May 1993).
Somaliland introduced a one-person, one-vote election system in 2003, with an initial referendum on independence held in 2001. Dahir Riyale, from the Awdal region, became the first democratically elected president in that election, defeating Silanyo and Faysal Ali Warabe, with half a million people participating.
The next election, delayed multiple times, took place in 2010. The main contenders were Silanyo (49%), Riyale (33%), and Faysal, who lost again. The latest election in 2017 saw Muse Bihi winning, with Abdirahman Cirro and Faysal participating, with Faysal once again falling short.
In the upcoming election, Cirro is expected to have an advantage according to forecasts.
In addition, the election will coincide with what is locally called the “Political Organizations Election,” where numerous political groups will compete to become “National Parties.” The top three groups with the most votes will earn the right to become recognized national parties. One prominent organization is KAAH, founded by well-known politician Mahmoud Hashi, who is expected to draw support away from the Kulmiye Party, potentially overshadowing the weaker UCID Party led by Faysal Ali Warabe. Another contender is Professor Ahmed Ismail Samatar’s group, Hillaac, which enjoys considerable backing in the Awdal region.
Parties and Their Ideologies
Although political parties within the Somali community and broader Africa are generally not strongly based on ideology, Somaliland’s parties somewhat reflect this trend. However, Kulmiye leans toward the right, advocating for Somaliland’s isolation from Somali and Somali Community in pursuit of international recognition and self-sufficiency. Kulmiye is also known for its “Mujahideen” members, former fighters of the armed wing of the Somali National Movement (SNM).
On the other hand, the Waddani Party believes Somaliland can achieve independence without severing all ties with Somalia. Waddani supports ongoing negotiations between Somalia and Somaliland and is seen as moderate on independence, with some party leaders suggesting a willingness to consider a co-federation model.
Other parties tend not to have distinct ideologies and often adopt principles aligned with either Kulmiye or Waddani.
Internal and External Factors Shaping the Election
Factors expected to influence the election in Somaliland include the importance of clan affiliations, the Lasanod conflict, the loss of freedoms under Kulmiye’s leadership, the economy, and inflation.
External influences include the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement, interest from nations in Somaliland’s strategic location such as the UAE, and other international players like Israel and other powers. Western nations are aiming to form an alliance against the Houthis, who pose a threat to them and neighboring to Somaliland. Türkiye is interested in expanding its regional influence, attempting to bridge Somalia and Somaliland relations, mediating between this two brother region. Djibouti seeks to prevent Ethiopia’s access to the sea, ensuring reliance on Djibouti’s port. Egypt wishes to block Ethiopia’s reach to the Red Sea or Bab-el-Mandeb strait. Vari
