Israel’s intention to establish a military base in Somaliland is likely to escalate diplomatic tensions with Somalia. Reports from the Qatari state-funded Middle East Monitor indicate that Israel is considering a military presence in northern Somalia to oversee activities in Yemen and the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
In exchange for this military foothold, Israel is expected to officially recognize Somaliland, a self-declared republic that lacks widespread international recognition and is generally viewed as part of Somalia. This potential recognition has already caused concern in Mogadishu, as it could strengthen Somaliland’s claims for independence and further strain relations between Somalia and Israel.
This diplomatic friction arises alongside an existing dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia. Somalia has taken steps to block Ethiopia’s attempts to secure maritime access to the Red Sea through a controversial agreement with Somaliland. This deal would lease part of Somaliland’s 740-kilometer coastline along the Gulf of Aden to Ethiopia, enabling the landlocked nation to establish a naval base.
Mogadishu has opposed this arrangement, citing fears over its implications for regional security. Somaliland’s strategic location near the Bab al-Mandab Strait positions it as a crucial player in combatting piracy, terrorism, and smuggling in the area.
The situation carries broader regional implications, with Israel and Ethiopia’s actions in Somaliland threatening to disrupt the fragile stability in the Horn of Africa.