Kenya’s tea industry is bracing for potential trade disruptions after Sudan, a key export market, condemned Nairobi’s recent hosting of delegates from Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The Sudanese government described the meeting as a hostile act and responded by recalling its ambassador from Kenya, signaling potential diplomatic and economic consequences.
Sudan is among the top ten buyers of Kenyan tea, ranking seventh in a list dominated by Pakistan, Egypt, and the UK. With tea accounting for roughly 23% of Kenya’s foreign exchange earnings, industry players fear that worsening relations could hurt exports, particularly in a market already struggling due to Sudan’s ongoing civil war. Some Mombasa-based tea traders voiced concerns that any trade restrictions from Sudan could lead to further declines in exports, impacting Kenya’s economy.
Trade consultant Ian Mwangi noted that while outright import restrictions from Sudan are unlikely, Kenya must prepare for potential shocks. “The war has already shown the need to diversify export markets, and the government has been working on this. They’ll now have to intensify these efforts to shield the sector,” he said.
The Kenyan trade ministry has yet to comment on the situation.
Rising Concerns Over Kenya’s Foreign Policy
The RSF had planned to use the Nairobi meeting to sign a charter establishing a parallel “government of peace and unity,” though the signing was ultimately postponed. The event sparked criticism, both domestically and internationally. Kenyan opposition lawmakers warned of diplomatic repercussions, while the U.S. recently accused the RSF of genocide and sanctioned its leader, Mohamed ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo.
Kenya’s foreign affairs ministry defended the decision to host RSF, citing its commitment to providing neutral platforms for peace negotiations, a role it has historically played in regional conflicts, including those in South Sudan and DR Congo. However, some analysts argue that engaging with the RSF could undermine Kenya’s standing as a mediator.
The diplomatic row comes amid worsening conditions in Sudan, where fighting between the RSF and Sudanese Armed Forces has killed at least 61,000 people and displaced 11.8 million. The UN recently appealed for $6 million in aid to address Sudan’s deepening hunger crisis.
Impact on Tea Trade and Market Stability
Kenyan tea exports to Sudan had plummeted by 74% in the year leading to March 2024, with revenue dropping from $18.6 million to $5 million. However, recent months saw signs of recovery, with October 2024 exports rising to 1.6 million kg from 1.3 million kg in the same period a year prior. Traders now fear the RSF controversy could reverse these gains.
“We were just seeing signs of recovery in one of our key markets,” said John Mwashumbe, a trader at Mombasa-based Chai Poa. “Now, we’re uncertain about what comes next.”
Some industry insiders remain optimistic, pointing to Kenya’s expanding tea markets. Broker Said Ali noted that while Sudan remains important, Kenya has increased exports to 58 countries as of February 2024, up from 48 a year earlier. “Markets like Chad and South Sudan are growing, and traditional buyers like the UK and India continue to demand Kenyan tea,” he said.
As diplomatic tensions unfold, the tea industry faces fresh uncertainties. Whether Kenya can mitigate potential trade losses through market diversification remains to be seen.