The M23 rebel group, backed by Rwanda, has threatened to move toward Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The group claims the security situation is “dangerously deteriorating.” This comes as the Congolese government refuses to hold direct talks with the rebels, increasing tensions in a region already struggling with instability and a growing humanitarian crisis.
If M23 captures Bukavu, it would significantly expand the group’s control, further weakening the Congolese government’s authority in the east. This follows the fall of Goma, the region’s largest city, to the rebels in late January. The threat of further fighting has also raised concerns of a broader regional conflict, especially with Burundian troops supporting Congo and reports of Rwandan troops gathering at the border to back M23.
Ceasefire Calls and Rejected Talks
M23 had earlier paused its advance toward Bukavu after declaring a unilateral ceasefire. Regional leaders then called for an immediate and unconditional end to hostilities. They also urged direct talks between the Congolese government and the rebels. However, on Tuesday, President Felix Tshisekedi’s ruling UDPS party stated that Congo would not negotiate directly with M23. Instead, they insisted that any talks must include other armed groups as part of a broader peace process led by the East African regional bloc.
Since capturing the mining town of Nyabibwe last week, M23 has not made major progress. However, heavy shelling was reported along the front lines on Tuesday morning, according to rebel, military, and local sources. Lawrence Kanyuka, a spokesperson for a rebel alliance that includes M23, posted on social media platform X that the situation in Bukavu is worsening, with civilians facing killings and looting.
“If these crimes continue, we will take action to eliminate the threat and protect our people,” Kanyuka warned.
Security Challenges and Humanitarian Concerns
The security situation in South Kivu has become even more unstable due to reports of Congolese soldiers looting villages and attacking civilians. On Tuesday, a military court in Bukavu began processing 272 detained soldiers and government-aligned militia members. They face charges including looting and murder. A Congolese army spokesperson confirmed that a regional military commander had led an operation to arrest undisciplined soldiers, highlighting the challenges of maintaining order within the ranks.
The rebels’ repeated advances and the possibility of a battle for Bukavu have raised fears of a wider regional conflict, similar to the wars that devastated the area between 1996 and 2003. The Congolese army, supported by allied militias and Burundian troops, is likely to face opposition from M23 and Rwandan forces. Reports suggest more Rwandan troops are gathering at the border with South Kivu.
Rwanda has been accused by Congo, the United Nations, and several Western countries of supporting M23 with troops and weapons. However, Rwanda denies these claims, saying its actions are defensive and aimed at protecting its borders and citizens.
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
The conflict in eastern Congo, which reignited in early 2022, has killed thousands and displaced over a million people. On Tuesday, the U.N. Office for Humanitarian Affairs reported an uneasy calm in Goma, with a gradual return to normal activities. However, thousands of civilians are leaving displacement sites around Goma after M23 demanded on Sunday that the sites be vacated within 72 hours. The rebels later clarified that such movements should be voluntary, but the situation has already caused significant disruption.
Aid groups worry that the unplanned dismantling of these sites could lead to the loss of critical infrastructure, such as water facilities and health centers, worsening the crisis.
Regional and International Implications
The escalating conflict in eastern Congo highlights the urgent need for a coordinated and inclusive peace process. However, with the Congolese government refusing direct talks with M23 and the rebels continuing to advance, the path to peace remains unclear. Regional leaders and the international community, including the United Nations, must play a key role in mediating the conflict and addressing the root causes of the violence to prevent further escalation and suffering.
As tensions rise and the humanitarian crisis deepens, the people of eastern Congo remain caught in the crossfire, with their hopes for stability and peace hanging in the balance.