The growing influence of Egypt in Somalia’s security landscape is causing unease among international partners and countries contributing troops to the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The Egyptian military is set to be deployed as part of a new security arrangement for the Horn of Africa nation following the expiry of the current African Union peacekeeping mandate.
Regional security experts have indicated that rising tensions in the Horn of Africa—intensified by Egypt’s military support for Somalia and the latter’s decision to exclude Ethiopia from this new security framework—have triggered concerns among donor countries.
This situation comes as the African Union (AU) and the United Nations are in discussions with the Federal Government of Somalia and its security allies to submit a report by November 15, 2024, regarding the post-African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (Atmis). The new mission, officially known as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (Aussom), is scheduled to commence on January 1, 2025.
Donors are particularly worried that the inclusion of Egyptian troops in Aussom, at the expense of Ethiopian forces who have participated in peacekeeping missions since 2014, signifies a strategic win for Egypt. This development is sensitive, given the longstanding tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile waters, and it could escalate regional conflicts.
Some current troop-contributing countries have expressed pushback against Egypt’s involvement in Aussom, arguing that its entry could disrupt the mission’s structure. Uganda, Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, and Djibouti have been the mainstay of the AU peacekeeping force in Somalia, contributing troops at various stages of the mission.
“Structurally, the next mission will not be different from the previous arrangements,” stated Uganda’s State Minister for International Affairs. “It may be operationally different, but not structurally.”
Uganda has been a key security partner for Somalia, sending troops to the region in March 2007, followed by Burundian forces in December. Djibouti, Kenya, and Ethiopia joined the peacekeeping force in 2011, 2012, and 2014, respectively, as the mission expanded.
“The TCCs are asking, why does Egypt want to join now? Where have they been all this time? They should have come much earlier,” the Minister commented.
Egypt is seeking a significant role in Somalia’s security arrangement for at least five years, proposing to deploy about 10,000 troops. Of these, 5,000 would serve under the Aussom structure, while the remainder would operate independently under a bilateral agreement signed in August during a visit by Somalia’s President to Cairo.
With its proposed numbers, Egypt could dominate Aussom, which is designed to be smaller and more agile compared to the previous missions. The focus will be on enhancing the operational capacity of the Somali National Army while safeguarding civilians against al-Shabaab’s violent extremism.
In late August, reports indicated that the first officers of Egypt’s independent mission arrived in Somalia, delivering personnel, equipment, and assets destined for deployment in various regions of the country.
When fully operational, this could position Egypt as Somalia’s primary military partner. However, it risks altering the nature of military support aimed at fostering stability in Somalia and combating al-Shabaab. This new dynamic could also heighten tensions with Ethiopia, which has condemned the arrival of the Egyptian military, viewing it as an attempt to destabilize the region.
After November 15, the UN Security Council is expected to formally approve the mandate of Aussom, which will have a more clearly defined operational scope aimed at supporting Somali security forces.
Recently, an AU-UN delegation concluded an eight-day visit to Somalia, engaging stakeholders involved in planning the Aussom mission. Discussions began, with analysts highlighting that Egypt’s impending deployment faces opposition from various factions.
The delegation met with Somali defense and security agencies, envoys from the troop-contributing countries, and international partners. However, there was no mention of meetings with the European Union, which has been a significant contributor to AU peacekeeping missions in Somalia since 2007.
An EU spokesperson indicated that the bloc has no preference for any specific country in the new mission, noting that troop contributions are still subject to approval by the Somali government.
“The EU expects any country involved to focus 100 percent on the fight against al-Shabaab,” the spokesperson said.
Concerns have also been raised over persistent funding challenges that have historically affected AU missions, emphasizing the need for equitable financial contributions from donors to maintain the peacekeeping force.
There are worries that ongoing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland regarding its sea route could hinder efforts to combat al-Shabaab. Officials from Kenya expressed concerns that the discord between Ethiopia and Somalia could obstruct initiatives to address violent extremism.
Experts analyzing the triangular tensions among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia suggest that al-Shabaab could exploit the situation, leading to increased attacks in the region.
While diplomatic tensions have largely defined the relationship between the two nations, the lack of cooperation has slowed momentum and diverted energy from combating al-Shabaab. Some voices within Somalia have even reframed the group as a ‘nationalist’ force against Ethiopia.
The United States has acknowledged that tensions between the two neighbors have hampered cooperation against al-Shabaab, raising concerns in Washington. General Michael Langley, Commander of the US Africa Command, confirmed that operational efforts against al-Shabaab have diminished since the tensions escalated.
“There are limited operations with the Ethiopians at this time. Time will tell if they will settle their differences,” he noted, emphasizing that the stabilization of southwestern Somalia has been valuable.
In a demonstration against the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, Somali citizens have expressed their frustrations publicly.
According to various analysts, the conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt primarily arises from their respective national interests, with both nations capitalizing on the dispute over the memorandum of understanding.
For Egypt, this situation presents an opportunity to exert regional influence and apply pressure on Ethiopia. However, the lack of cooperation could undermine efforts to combat al-Shabaab and destabilize the Horn of Africa further.
The UN Security Council has recently addressed the issue of rising tensions, although member countries disagreed on the funding model for the new mission. Urgency was emphasized in reaching an agreement on a post-Atmis force.
“The international community must maintain focus on this transition, which is critical to our shared security. We are deeply concerned about rising tension between Ethiopia and Somalia and the negative impact it is having on shared security interests,” stated a US official.
“Regional tensions must not distract Somalia from critical state-building challenges or efforts to degrade al-Shabaab,” the official added.