Nigeria and Angola are set to spearhead Africa’s oil production growth in 2025, with the continent projected to produce 3.39 million barrels per day (bpd), reflecting a significant increase of over 500,000 bpd. The “State of African Energy 2025 Outlook” by the African Energy Chamber (AEC) highlights West Africa as the driving force behind the rise, targeting an increase from 6.5 million bpd to nearly 7 million bpd by year-end.
The report underscores the resilience of West Africa, which currently produces 3.7 million bpd. With steady contributions from Angola and a recovery in Nigeria’s oil sector, the region could achieve 3.8–3.9 million bpd in 2025. Africa is expected to contribute approximately 8% of the global crude oil and condensate supply this year, with production bolstered by improved conditions in Nigeria and Sudan.
Nigeria’s Oil Output Surges to Four-Year High
Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude producer, has surpassed its December 2024 OPEC production quota, achieving 1.51 million bpd—the highest level in four years. This marks a recovery from the 1.3 million bpd recorded in 2023, driven by enhanced security measures to combat pipeline vandalism and oil theft.
The Nigerian government, targeting 2.06 million bpd in 2025, including condensates, attributes its progress to initiatives like Operation Delta Safe, which aims to curb oil theft that cost the country $23 million daily in 2022. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) reported reaching 1.8 million bpd in October 2024, thanks to improved security measures.
Major Investments Signal Optimism
Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company (SNEPCo) has committed $5 billion to the Bonga North deep-water project, a critical initiative expected to sustain oil and gas output at Shell’s Bonga facility. The project includes drilling 16 wells and installing advanced subsea equipment. With an estimated 300 million barrels of recoverable oil equivalent, Bonga North is projected to peak at 110,000 bpd by the decade’s end.
Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, highlighted Nigeria’s progress in attracting investments by eliminating bureaucratic hurdles and implementing reforms. “From where we started to where we are now, the progress is undeniable,” Lokpobiri stated, emphasizing the sector’s potential for growth and development to benefit Nigerians.
This renewed momentum underscores Nigeria’s pivotal role in driving Africa’s energy sector toward a more stable and productive future.