An opinion poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics has placed Ghana’s main opposition leader, John Dramani Mahama, in a strong position to win the upcoming presidential election in December. Mahama, 65, is leading his main challenger, Vice President Muhamudu Bawumia, 60, by a significant margin of 10.7 percentage points.
The poll, released on Monday, shows Mahama securing 52% of voter support compared to Bawumia’s 41.3%. With a margin of error of 1.9%, the results highlight a shift in the political landscape ahead of the December 7 election, which will elect a new president following the end of President Nana Akufo-Addo’s two-term tenure.
Mahama, who served as president from 2012 to 2017, is running once again as the candidate for the National Democratic Congress (NDC), the country’s main opposition party. During his previous administration, Mahama faced criticism over economic instability and power shortages, although his government also heavily invested in infrastructure development. Despite corruption allegations against his government, Mahama was never personally implicated in any wrongdoing.
Bawumia, representing the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP), has focused his campaign on economic recovery following Ghana’s worst economic crisis in decades. Under Akufo-Addo’s leadership, the country struggled with a rising debt burden and inflation. In 2022, Ghana defaulted on much of its $30 billion external debt, and in 2023, the country secured a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
Both Mahama and Bawumia have outlined plans to tackle Ghana’s economic challenges, with a focus on job creation, education, and infrastructure. The nation’s key cocoa sector and heavy borrowing have led to significant financial pressures, which have weighed heavily on voters’ concerns.
Analysts, including the Economist Intelligence Unit and Fitch Solutions, predict a potential win for the NDC, given the current economic climate. However, with both candidates hailing from northern Ghana, a region historically supportive of the NDC, the NPP has made significant inroads, complicating the election outcome.
Political experts, including Alidu Seidu from the University of Ghana, suggest that the race is likely to remain close, with a run-off vote a real possibility. No party in Ghana’s democratic history has ever won more than two consecutive terms, which could play a crucial role in this year’s election.