According to Bloomberg’s analysis, the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria poses a significant threat to Russia’s key Hmeymim Air Base, a crucial asset for its growing influence in Africa.
Russia has used the Hmeymim base to transport personnel and military supplies to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, nations that have recently distanced themselves from the West and aligned with Moscow. This air bridge has allowed Russia to rebuild its Cold War-era influence in countries like the Central African Republic (CAR) and Sudan.
The Hmeymim base, alongside the Tartus Naval Base—which receives Russian fuel and supplies—has enabled Moscow to expand its military, political, and economic influence in Africa at a relatively low cost. However, recent satellite images from Maxar indicate a shift. While aircraft and equipment remain at Hmeymim, most ships docked at Tartus have departed, and two frigates are now stationed 7-12 kilometers offshore.
Rebuilding Influence in Africa
Russia’s efforts to reestablish its African influence began in earnest in 2018. Wagner Group mercenaries, linked to the Kremlin, were deployed to CAR to defend the besieged president from a coup attempt. In 2019, Wagner forces played a pivotal role in Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to seize Libya’s capital, Tripoli.
Since then, Russia has expanded its footprint by deploying fighters and arms to Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Despite current threats to this support, sources close to these governments insist Russia will find alternative solutions.
Fidele Gouandjika, an advisor to CAR’s president, stated, “Russia will have a Plan B,” suggesting alternatives such as strengthening operations in Libya or utilizing ports in Cameroon or Congo-Brazzaville to maintain supply routes to CAR.
Logistical Challenges and Future Scenarios
Russia’s operational capacity in Libya includes four air bases (Al-Hadim, Al-Jufra, Gardabiya, and Brak Al-Shati). However, these bases are too distant from Moscow to replace Hmeymim as a supply hub due to European airspace restrictions.
According to Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, losing the Hmeymim base would be a “significant blow” to Russia’s African operations. “All supplies were routed through Hmeymim—this was crucial for landlocked countries like CAR,” Pukhov explained.
Ulf Laessing, director of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, emphasized the difficulties ahead: “Assad’s fall will seriously disrupt Russia’s military operations in Africa. Supplies, troop rotations, and arms deliveries relied on Syria. Direct flights from Russia to Africa are too far for fully loaded transport planes.”
Laessing concluded, “Russia will have to scale back its engagement in Africa, and this will become far more costly.”