Somalia’s political landscape is increasingly strained following disputes over its electoral system and escalating tensions between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Jubbaland region. The rift began when Jubbaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, also known as Madobe, secured a third term after a controversial parliamentary decision to lift term limits. The FGS declared the election illegal, accusing Madobe of overstaying his mandate and undermining national unity.
At the core of this dispute is Somalia’s broader move towards electoral reform. In October, the National Consultative Council (NCC) proposed transitioning to a one-person, one-vote system for the 2025 elections. However, both Jubbaland and Puntland boycotted the talks, arguing that the reforms threatened regional autonomy. Madobe, an outspoken critic of centralization, views the changes as a direct challenge to his leadership and regional authority.
The situation worsened in late November when clashes erupted between FGS forces and Jubbaland troops in Ras Kamboni, a strategic town near the Kenyan border. Although the FGS claimed the deployment aimed to combat Al-Shabaab, observers noted it as an attempt to assert control over Jubbaland. The clashes further strained relations, exposing deep mistrust between the federal government and the region.
The tension escalated when the Somali government grounded all flights at Aden Adde International Airport bound for Kismayo, leaving numerous passengers stranded. Reports suggest this decision was tied to efforts to control troop movements and exert authority over Jubbaland. The move came shortly after the Somali National Army evacuated Ras Kamboni, creating additional friction.
Former Somali Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire condemned the flight ban, calling it reckless and detrimental to national stability. In a statement, Khaire criticized the FGS for escalating the crisis instead of seeking peaceful resolutions.
The situation is further complicated by international involvement. Ethiopia, which maintains a military presence in Jubbaland, has reportedly supported factions opposing the FGS, while Somalia has strengthened ties with Egypt and Eritrea. Egypt’s military aid to Somalia is seen as a strategic counterbalance to Ethiopia amid their ongoing tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Despite mediation attempts, including discussions with Kenyan officials, the growing divide between Jubbaland and the FGS threatens Somalia’s fragile federal system. Both sides remain entrenched in their positions, raising concerns about the country’s stability and prospects for reconciliation.