Somalia is embroiled in a political crisis as the federal government and the southern state of Jubbaland clash over electoral reforms. The federal government’s push for a one-person, one-vote system, intended to transition Somalia to direct elections, is opposed by Jubbaland. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud argues that the reform is essential for Somalia’s democratic progress, but Jubbaland views it as an attempt to centralize power in Mogadishu and diminish regional autonomy. The dispute has escalated as Jubbaland has formed its own electoral commission, while the federal government questions the legitimacy of the leadership in Jubbaland, particularly President Ahmed Madobe, and raises concerns about the security situation in the Lower Juba region.
Jubbaland’s resistance to the federal government’s election proposals echoes similar tensions that arose under former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo. At that time, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who was in opposition, supported Jubbaland’s autonomy and its right to manage its electoral affairs without federal interference. However, now that he is president, Hassan Sheikh’s government is pursuing the same reforms, with critics arguing that the one-person, one-vote system is aimed at advancing the president’s political interests. Opponents suggest that it is being pushed in order to ensure Hassan Sheikh’s re-election, particularly after concerns that he could lose the secret vote in Afisyooni, where previous elections had raised questions about transparency.
Additionally, the political rift has exposed deeper tensions within Somalia’s federal structure, as other regional states like Puntland have also raised concerns about the federal government’s actions. Puntland, which has been critical of the federal government for over two years, has severed its relationship with Mogadishu, accusing the federal government of manipulating the constitution to suit its own interests. Puntland’s decision to distance itself is another sign of growing fragmentation in Somalia, as the federal government struggles to maintain control over its regions.
As the situation continues to unfold, the Horn of Africa is bracing for an increase in political instability, with Somali lawmakers from Jubbaland warning that the central government’s actions could further destabilize the region and fuel sectarian tensions. The federal government, already strained by internal divisions and external threats like Al-Shabaab, faces mounting pressure to resolve the crisis through dialogue, but the path forward remains uncertain.