Somalia’s foreign policy has drawn criticism for what analysts describe as an inconsistent and risky strategy that risks destabilizing the Horn of Africa. Despite recent diplomatic efforts like the Ankara Declaration to ease tensions with Ethiopia, Somalia’s growing alignment with Egypt appears to be creating new frictions in an already volatile region.
Somalia’s recent diplomatic engagements have raised eyebrows due to their contrasting focus. On one hand, the Somali Foreign Minister Ahmed Moalim Fiqi held high-profile discussions with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, signaling strengthened ties between the two nations. On the other, a comparatively low-key visit to Ethiopia was led by Ali Omar, the State Minister for Foreign Affairs, rather than the foreign minister himself. This apparent disparity highlights Mogadishu’s leaning toward Egypt, a preference unlikely to sit well with Addis Ababa.
A key flashpoint in Somalia’s foreign policy has been its decision to welcome Egyptian troops into the upcoming African Union peacekeeping mission. This move has alarmed Ethiopia, a major contributor to the current African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS). Ethiopia perceives Egypt’s involvement as a provocative step, given its longstanding distrust of Egyptian intentions in the region. The inclusion of Egyptian forces near Ethiopia’s borders has heightened fears of a potential proxy conflict, further straining relations between the two neighbors.
Adding to the friction, Somalia has reportedly interfered in the Memorandum of Understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, an agreement that Somalia claims to have no legal standing over. This perceived overreach has frustrated Ethiopia, undermining efforts to foster cooperation in the Horn of Africa and potentially destabilizing fragile regional alliances.
Observers suggest that Egypt is exploiting Somalia’s vulnerabilities to advance its strategic objectives in the region. Cairo has deepened its financial, military, and political support for Mogadishu, securing a stronger foothold in East Africa. However, this growing dependency may limit Somalia’s ability to maintain balanced relationships with its neighbors and act independently in its foreign policy decisions.
Somalia’s strategy appears to prioritize short-term alliances over long-term regional stability. By deepening ties with Egypt at Ethiopia’s expense, Mogadishu risks alienating one of its most influential neighbors and fueling broader tensions in the Horn of Africa. Critics warn that this approach could leave Somalia isolated and vulnerable, exacerbating insecurity within its borders while destabilizing the region.
Unless Somalia adopts a more balanced and cooperative diplomatic approach, the current trajectory could escalate existing conflicts and undermine trust among its neighbors, creating challenges that may take months or even years to resolve.