South African citrus growers and other businesses are expressing growing concerns that their duty- and quota-free access to U.S. markets could be at risk with the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the presidency next year. Under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), more than 1,800 products from 32 African nations, including South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana, currently enjoy preferential treatment in the U.S. market. However, Trump’s repeated promises to impose a 10% tariff on all imports from overseas have raised doubts about the future of AGOA.
The legislation, which has been in place since 2000 and is set to expire in 2025, could face significant changes or even be repealed altogether. This uncertainty has sparked fears that such a move could have damaging consequences for businesses and workers across Africa.
Justin Chadwick, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA), emphasized that if South Africa is removed from AGOA, it could result in the loss of thousands of jobs, particularly in rural areas, and the forfeiture of billions of rands in export revenues.
“We rely on this competitive advantage,” Chadwick said. “The removal of AGOA would have severe economic consequences, especially for smaller producers and rural communities.”
The impact is being keenly felt by industries such as food production, with one major Eastern Cape-based manufacturer warning that losing AGOA benefits could “kill” their business. The company, which exports sorbet to the United States and employs over 3,000 people, generates a substantial portion of its income from these exports.
Automakers and parts suppliers, such as SP Metal Forgings Group, also stand to lose if AGOA is not renewed, though some industry leaders are optimistic that U.S. consumers might absorb the cost of higher tariffs. “Even if tariffs are implemented, it wouldn’t radically change the competitive edge we have,” said Ken Manners, managing director of SP Metal Forgings. “Our products are highly specialized and difficult to source elsewhere, meaning U.S. consumers would likely bear the cost of any price increases.”
Although the potential economic impact on South Africa’s overall GDP may be minimal, analysts caution that in a sluggish economy, every loss counts. “The broader economy may not be significantly affected, but any disruption to trade would be detrimental in an environment of weak growth,” said Dawie Roodt, a Johannesburg-based economist.
With uncertainty surrounding the fate of AGOA, many African businesses are bracing for change. Ronak Gopaldas, a London-based political analyst, warned that Trump’s economic policies remain volatile and unpredictable. “Expecting the worst and hoping for the best is the most realistic approach,” Gopaldas said.
Meanwhile, other African countries benefiting from AGOA, particularly in the textile sector, are also bracing for potential changes. Mukhisa Kituyi, a former UNCTAD secretary-general from Kenya, believes that the U.S. may seek to renegotiate AGOA, focusing on tightening rules regarding the origin of products like textiles and vehicles, especially in light of Trump’s focus on U.S. manufacturing.
Trade relations in Central Africa may also face shifts, particularly in mineral exports from countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Angola, which are currently outside AGOA’s scope but have gained attention under President Joe Biden’s administration.
As the political landscape shifts, analysts predict that U.S. trade policy will increasingly align with geopolitical interests, with African nations that have close ties to Russia and China potentially finding themselves at a disadvantage. South Africa, in particular, could face challenges due to its vocal criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, as Gopaldas noted that Washington’s stance could become more rigid, forcing African nations to navigate a complex diplomatic landscape.
