The ongoing consequences of last year’s devastating El Niño have compounded agricultural difficulties across southern Africa, leaving millions vulnerable to food insecurity. According to the latest Southern Africa Seasonal Monitor by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), food access for impoverished households will remain constrained throughout 2025, as escalating staple food prices continue to challenge already strained economies.
The region has been grappling with unpredictable rainfall patterns since October, with significant deficits in key agricultural areas such as Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia. Notably, regions like eastern Madagascar, southern Mozambique, and southern Zambia saw rainfall delayed by over 30 days, severely hindering crop planting and growth. High temperatures and dry spells in December only worsened crop stress, forcing farmers to replant and leading to wilting crops, particularly in Malawi.
Despite some regions benefiting from above-average rainfall, such as parts of Botswana, Angola, and northern South Africa, the forecast for the remainder of the rainy season remains uncertain. FEWS NET predicts above-normal rainfall for much of the southern region through March, but concerns persist that rainfall may arrive too late to salvage already planted crops. Excessive rain could also harm grain crops, worsening food shortages.
The situation is further complicated by the delayed La Niña weather pattern, which typically brings much-needed rainfall to southern Africa. Initially forecast to occur in July, La Niña’s late formation in December limited its beneficial effects, and it is expected to weaken by April. Climate change, contributing to unpredictable weather and extreme temperatures, is also intensifying the region’s vulnerability to erratic agricultural cycles.
The Southern African region is already in the midst of a food security crisis, with approximately 30 million people facing severe food shortages. The 2024 El Niño event drastically impacted maize production in Zimbabwe, reducing output by over 60%, while Zambia and South Africa experienced significant declines of 50% and 23%, respectively. The region’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture, particularly for maize farming north of the Limpopo River, leaves it highly susceptible to shifting weather patterns.
The agricultural collapse has extended to livestock farming, where Namibia, Botswana, and western South Africa have witnessed declines in meat and milk production due to poor grazing conditions and water shortages, exacerbating regional food insecurity.
In addition to these challenges, pests such as the fall armyworm are threatening key crops like maize and sorghum, particularly in Malawi. Wildlife-related conflicts, including crop-raiding elephants in Malawi, are further straining farmers’ ability to produce food, with tensions rising in areas near Kasungu National Park.
The economic toll is equally severe. Malawi saw inflation surge to 28.1% in December 2024, compounded by slow economic growth. South Africa, too, saw its economy contract by 0.3% in the third quarter, largely due to a significant drop in agricultural output. Maize price volatility is expected to keep food inflation high, creating further hardships for vulnerable households across the region.
With forecasts suggesting that South Africa’s maize production might improve slightly this season, much will depend on the weather over the coming months. The country’s Crop Estimates Committee will provide further clarity on maize prospects later this month.
As the region faces an uncertain future, the persistent combination of climate change, economic decline, and agricultural devastation has set the stage for a prolonged food security crisis in southern Africa.