Life in war-torn Sudan for ordinary people has become unexpectedly harsh because of the conflict ongoing between the National Army (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023. Moving from one place to a safer place became routine for the Sudanese people. Once rich, one now only look for a room, if lucky; if not, one must look for a shadow of a tree. Millions of Sudanese lost their financial assets and properties within a short period and the tragedy of Sudanese continues evolving daily.
Recently, RSF forces entered Singa following their attacks al Gazira and Sennar states. Nowadays they are in preparation to take control of other cities in the southeastern part of the country. News agencies state that more than 100.000 displaced Sudanese from various cities reached al Gadarif recently. After Gadarif, Ad Damazin and Kasala are the next stations for displaced Sudanese.
It seems that RSF’s move toward Sudan’s southeastern parts has a strategic aim which is to control the Ethiopian border zone and to open another channel for military logistics throughout Ethiopia. Already RSF mini drones targeted official buildings and some gatherings in Gadarif last week. If Gadarif is taken by, it will provide RSF an important strategic foothold and advantage in the southeastern part of the country.
The army and its supporters, the old regime elements, are busy organizing gatherings showing the support of residents to the army and mobilizing new recruits amongst the Sudanese youth. For that, we can say that the scene in Sudan is evolving into a civil war. Sudanese youth have no chance either to join the army or RSF militia. Without education and job, the future for Sudanese youth is so gloomy.
Under the shadow of RSF’s violence including looting, killing, arming youth and sexual harassment a humanitarian crisis is evolving in the Darfur region, Kordofan, and southeastern parts of the country as well as the capital Khartoum. Reaching food and water sources, and finding safe shelter are the main concerns of millions of displaced Sudanese people. Health and education systems collapsed a long time ago.
People in some parts of Sudan already face famine due to food insecurity. Moreover, humanitarian aid has no secure corridor. Conflict-ridden catastrophic scene dominate across Sudan. 2 million Sudanese left the country according to UNHCR and 8 million were displaced within the country. More than 25 million Sudanese, the majority children, need humanitarian aid. Moreover, UN agencies lack financial support in order to provide basic needs.
State sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sudan have deteriorated since the conflict broke out. RSF’s military presence in Darfur, North Kordofan, Khartoum, Sennar, Al Gazira, and Singa presents an important challenge to the army. On the diplomatic level, Sudanese state officials seek new ways of getting military support from Russia, Iran, or Türkiye in order to confront RSF attacks and its main supporter United Arab Emirates (UAE). Russia has a condition related to obtaining access to the Red Sea, Türkiye has no intention to take a such big risk in Sudan and Iran’s military support has no capacity to change the direction of the current war.
Mediation efforts between the warring parties taking place in Riyad, Cairo, Djibouti, and Geneve have all failed so far. It is now evident that UAE is the main arms supplier to RSF throughout Libya and Chad. Without cutting this supply, negations and calls for a ceasefire will have no meaning in Sudan.
Sudan is on the verge of balkanization and it has no way to exit. Finding proper exit from this crisis by waiting for empathy from the creators of the crisis has no meaning because both sides are blind and deaf to the sufferings of Sudanese people. In these circumstances only communal connections can keep people alive. Sudanese state is under a big threat and it is paralyzed long time ago. In a such environment Sudan has no option other than lean to power of itself.
On the global level, the Sudanese crisis, now completed 15 months, has not gotten any attention, unfortunately. Ukraine and Gaza crisis along with rising extremist rights and the US-China and Russia confrontation occupied the global agenda.
Since its independence in 1956, Sudan never witness such a crisis its size and impact bigger than the ongoing crisis. Past peripheral conflicts have been regional in essence but today Sudan has an important ontological concern. All political and military indicators signal a deadlock for Sudan because the army has limited capacity to halt advance of illegitimate RSF. Lack of electricity, water and basic services in addition to soaring prices are only exacerbating the human condition in the country from bad to worse. The future of Sudan looks gloomy and, of course, its catastrophic scene requires more attention.
