A Deep Dive into the Ongoing Conflict and Stakeholders
Sudan remains in the grip of a devastating war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted in April 2023. The ongoing conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis, displacement of millions, and an increasing number of civilian casualties. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the major stakeholders, coalitions, foreign involvement, and territorial control shaping the current political landscape in Sudan.
Key Players in the Conflict
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
The SAF is Sudan’s official military, commanded by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who also serves as the country’s de facto leader. Since the coup in October 2021, which ousted the civilian-led government, the SAF has been engaged in a power struggle with the RSF. The military aims to consolidate control over Sudan while maintaining alliances with political factions that support a centralized governance structure.
Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
The RSF is a powerful paramilitary group led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (commonly known as Hemedti). Originally formed from the notorious Janjaweed militia implicated in Darfur war crimes, the RSF has expanded into a formidable military force with significant economic interests. The RSF initially operated as a government-backed entity but has since turned against the SAF, leading to the current civil war.
Minni Minawi and Darfur Armed Groups
Minni Minawi, a key leader in Darfur and head of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA-MM), has been an influential figure in the conflict. While his forces have historically fought against the central government, Minawi has recently aligned with the SAF, seeking to protect his interests in Darfur and resist RSF domination in the region. His forces have played a crucial role in countering RSF advances in western Sudan.
Political Coalitions and Factions
While the war is primarily a battle between the SAF and RSF, political parties and alliances have played a significant role in shaping Sudan’s political landscape. Below are the major political factions and their affiliations:
Pro-SAF Camp:
Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) – Central Council: Formerly part of Sudan’s civilian government, the FFC-Central Council initially opposed military rule but has aligned with the SAF against the RSF, seeing the latter as a greater threat.
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP): A traditionalist political party that has long supported centralized governance and is aligned with the SAF.
Ba’ath Party (Arab Socialist Ba’ath Party – Sudan): This faction generally supports the SAF’s efforts to maintain Sudan’s territorial integrity.
Pro-RSF Camp:
Former Regime Loyalists: Certain factions within Sudan’s Islamist movement have thrown their support behind Hemedti’s forces, seeing them as a counterweight to Burhan’s consolidation of power.
Some Darfur-based Groups: Certain ethnic militias and political groups in Darfur, seeing an opportunity to gain autonomy, have sided with the RSF.
Neutral and Non-Partisan Groups:
The Sudanese Coordination of Civil Democratic Forces (Tagadum): a pro-civilian-power coalition in Sudan which is involved in peace negotiations in the War in Sudan. Taqaddum claims to be neutral in the conflict. The coalition was founded in October 2023. It is led by former Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok. In January 2024, Hamdok met the leader of the Rapid Support Forces Mohamed Hamdan Daglo in Addis Ababa, SAF accused of Supporting RSF. In April 2024, Hamdok met with President of France Emmanuel Macron in Paris.
Umma Party: One of Sudan’s oldest political parties, advocating for a democratic solution to the crisis.
Sudanese Congress Party: Formerly part of the FFC, this party has distanced itself from both military factions and is pushing for civilian-led governance.
Resistance Committees: These grassroots groups, formed during the 2019 revolution, remain largely independent and advocate for democracy and civilian rule while rejecting military dominance from both SAF and RSF.
Foreign Involvement
The conflict has drawn in multiple international actors, either directly or through proxy engagements. Some nations are backing specific factions, while others are attempting to mediate the crisis.
Egypt
Egypt has been a staunch supporter of the SAF and General Burhan. Given its historical ties with Sudan and concerns over regional stability, Cairo sees the SAF as the legitimate authority and has provided diplomatic and logistical backing to Burhan’s forces.
United Arab Emirates (UAE)
The UAE has been accused of covertly supporting the RSF by supplying arms and logistical support, though it officially denies these allegations. The UAE has significant economic interests in Sudan, particularly in its gold mining sector, which is largely controlled by the RSF.
Saudi Arabia and the United States
Both Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have attempted to mediate between the warring factions, hosting peace talks in Jeddah. However, repeated ceasefire agreements have failed, as both sides continue to seek military victories.
Russia and Wagner Group
Russia’s private military company, Wagner Group, has been reported to have ties with the RSF, allegedly supplying weapons and logistical support. Russia sees Sudan as a critical geostrategic partner and has sought to establish a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast.
Turkiye
Some Reports indicate that Turkiye has supplied drones and weapons to the SAF, but Turkiye has maintained economic ties with legal Sudanese Government and has not taken a direct military stance, last month Turkiye offered mediation to warring parties in Sudan Specially Alburhan and the UAE which is accused of backing RSF.
Ethiopia and the African Union (AU)
Ethiopia, which shares a border with Sudan, has remained relatively neutral but is concerned about the war’s spillover effects. The AU has attempted to mediate but has struggled to bring both parties to a sustainable agreement.
United Nations (UN) and Western Nations
The UN has warned of an impending famine and worsening humanitarian crisis in Sudan. The U.S., European Union, and UK have imposed sanctions on individuals and entities linked to both the SAF and RSF to pressure them into negotiations.
Territorial Control and the Biggest Frontlines
The war has divided Sudan into different areas controlled by either the SAF or RSF:
Khartoum and Central Sudan: Fierce battles continue. The RSF controlling large parts of Khartoum although they lost Albahri and Army headquater last week.
Darfur Region: The RSF dominates most of Darfur, but SAF-aligned Minni Minawi’s forces control parts of North Darfur.
Kordofan Region: The RSF has made significant gains in South Kordofan, while the SAF maintains control in parts of North Kordofan.
Eastern Sudan (Port Sudan & Red Sea Coast): The SAF remains in firm control of Port Sudan, the country’s main economic hub.
Northern Sudan: SAF maintains control over major cities and supply routes.
Sudan’s war remains a complex and devastating conflict with no clear resolution in sight. The SAF and RSF continue to fight for dominance, while political factions and international actors maneuver for influence. The failure of multiple ceasefires and peace efforts suggests that the war will persist unless a decisive military outcome or a comprehensive political settlement is reached. Meanwhile, the Sudanese people continue to bear the brunt of the violence, facing famine, displacement, and insecurity. The international community must intensify efforts to push for a resolution and humanitarian relief to prevent further suffering.