Relations between the United States (US) and South Africa have reached a new low following the expulsion of South African Ambassador Ebrahim Rasool from Washington. Analysts warn that the move could signal a prolonged diplomatic stalemate.
Political experts say the US decision stems from a combination of factors, including South Africa’s role in the BRICS, its legal action against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and ongoing misinformation about land reform policies.
“I think we’re going to have a very difficult road ahead,” said political analyst Dale McKinley, adding that the Trump administration appears determined to pressure South Africa to change its foreign policy stance, particularly on Palestine.
Rasool was declared persona non grata by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio after his comments accusing President Donald Trump of promoting supremacist ideologies. He was greeted on his return to Cape Town by supporters who condemned Washington’s actions.
The dispute escalated further when Trump signed an executive order last month freezing aid to South Africa. The decision cited concerns over land expropriation policies, alleged discrimination against white farmers and the country’s diplomatic ties with Iran and Hamas.
BRICS and US Foreign Policy Changes
Analysts believe Washington’s tough stance is part of a broader geopolitical strategy to target South Africa as one of the more vulnerable BRICS members.
“Trump is sending a message to the big BRICS countries by pressuring South Africa,” said Kedibone Phago, a professor at Northwest University. He said the US sees the growing influence of the 10-nation bloc, including China, Russia and Iran, as a direct challenge to its global dominance.
McKinley noted the influence of prominent South African expatriates such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel in shaping Trump’s views of the country. “They are promoting a narrative that opposes the current government and romanticizes the apartheid era,” he said.
Land Reform and Misinformation
The crux of the debate remains South Africa’s land expropriation policy, which aims to address historic inequalities. Critics claim it unfairly targets white farmers, while analysts argue that these claims are exaggerated.
McKinley stressed that the policy was legally structured to ensure fair distribution, adding, “No land was taken without compensation.” Phago backed up by dismissing as baseless the accusations of “genocide” against white South Africans.
Economic Consequences and Future Impacts
Experts warn that deteriorating diplomatic ties could have significant economic consequences, particularly for trade agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants duty-free access to U.S. markets for South African exports.
“With more than 600 U.S. companies operating in South Africa, a major outcome could be devastating for jobs and economic stability,” Phago warned.
As tensions escalate, analysts predict that economic and diplomatic pressure from Washington will continue and could reshape South Africa’s foreign policy approach in the years to come.